Oscar Picks - iN’s Academy Awards Pool

The time has come to judge those judged the best of Hollywood this past year and determine those worthy to win this year’s Oscar race. The Academy is promising a new and improved awards show for it’s 82nd annual soiree, something more streamlined but with added unpredictability. Well, hosts Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin should keep things lively enough, but we all know the real reason people watch this is for the cutthroat competition. Below we look at several leading categories and determine who will be adding the “Academy Award winner” epitaph to their name, and who’ll be drowning their sorrows at the after party.

Best Picture

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

It was a worthy experiment, but me thinks there’s a reason why no one thought to put forth 10 Best picture nominees on the same ballot in 48 years. Looking at the one’s that don’t have an adjoining Best Director nomination, you have five selections that are basically pandering or are cynical, saving face moves. You have the art house pick (An Education), the lip service to recent winners pick (A Serious Man), the sentimental pick (The Blind Side), the token blockbuster (District 9) and an animated movie (Up) to silence critics who say the awards don’t take animation seriously.

So let’s deal with the five “real” nominees, and as we all know, this is a battle of the exes. James Cameron’s mega-blockbuster Avatar, and Kathryn Bigelow’s haunting war drama The Hurt Locker. As the wags have noted, if Hurt Locker is victorious it will be the Best Picture winner with the lowest ever box office earnings, which to me only heightens the “David vs. Goliath” dynamic of this race. Cameron, with $350 million and the entire Hollywood technocracy at his fingertips, created a visually arresting movie, but one whose narrative is flawed and derivative. Bigelow, on the other hand, created what is perhaps the greatest subversive war film since Robert Altman made M*A*S*H, and she did it for a fraction of the price.

Now some have speculated, including Cameron himself, that the Academy may split the difference by giving Bigelow Director and Cameron Picture. But this is the same Academy that’s still smarting from whips by the critical elite for doing the same thing with Shakespeare in Love and Saving Private Ryan. Avatar will win plenty of hardware; this Best Picture’s going in the Locker.

My Pick: The Hurt Locker

Best Director

James Cameron - Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air

Everyone here is worthy in my opinion, but again it comes down to Cameron and Bigelow. If she wins, Bigelow will have broken one of the thickest glass ceilings in Hollywood. But more importantly, she will have won because her film was a masterpiece of dramatic tension and a study of the psychological effects of war.

My Pick: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker

To me, the two leaders of this pack are Colin Firth and Jeremy Renner. Firth’s portrayal of George in A Single Man is a seething cauldron of grief and self-loathing beneath the practiced patient exterior of this 1960s college professor; he thinks his mind’s made up but he learns that there are still surprises in life. Renner meanwhile plays Staff Sgt. William James as a man in love with and loathing of danger. He thinks he’s one thing, counting down the days till he can go home, but once he’s home he realizes he’s become in love with the potential of his own annihilation. Too bad then that after four times at bat, Jeff Bridges is going to come in and collect the run on this one.

My Pick: Jeff Bridges

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds

In an unusually weak slate for this category Chrisoph Waltz stands head and shoulders above everyone else. Waltz’s Col. Landa wasn’t just great villain, but he was a fascinating character no matter the uniform he wears, as well as being the least ideologically motivated Nazi of all time. A wonderful character cast in the Tarantino mould.

My Pick: Christoph Waltz

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Few mainstream actresses are as galvanizing in people’s opinions as Sandra Bullock, yet somehow, the Oscars have set her up to be the winner by default. The veterans – Mirren and Streep – will cancel each other out; so to will the two new kids Mulligan and Sidibe. It’s a tough field because no one stands right out in my opinion. So, paradoxically, Bullock will stand alone for her years of service (especially for being a good sport about that whole Speed 2: Cruise Control thing).

My Pick: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo’Nique – Precious

It’s a tough call between the ladies of Up in the Air and the Worst Mom Ever from Precious. Farmiga with her natural sultriness and Kendrick as the uptight workaholic in the making both turned in fine performances. However, I’ve got to give the prize to Mo’Nique for her truly earth-shattering portrayal of the title character’s mother, visiting one frightful incident of emotional or physical abuse on her child after another. A 180 degree reversal for the comedienne, and a masterful one at that.

My Pick: Mo’Nique

Best Animated Feature

Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
The Secret of Kells
Up

The animation crop was quite a bounty this year. I think all these films are worthy of consideration but to my mind Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog and Up stand out. Mr. Fox is simply masterful as both a film and a work of art, it’s old school stop motion is so vivid you can touch it. Then again, Up was pure poetry with the beautifully depicted relationship between soulmates Carl and Ellie. Plus there was adventure involving zeppelins, flying houses and talking dogs. As much as my sensibilities detest me to give up the animation Oscar to yet another CG ‘toon, I’ve got to give credit where credit is due.

My Pick: Up

Best Original Screenplay

The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger - Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man - Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up - Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy

What we have here is a five car pile-up, as in I can’t think of a single one of these scripts that’s not worthy enough to win. The Coens are recent winners so maybe not them, and as mush as I would like to see Basterds take this one, I think it more likely that Mark Boal’s Hurt Locker script may be part of an overall sweep by the film. It’s definitely the safe bet.

My Pick: The Hurt Locker

Best Adapted Screenplay

District 9 - Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
An Education - Nick Hornby
In the Loop - Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

I’m afraid this category will depend on the mood of the voters: a more upbeat though timely dramedy (Up in the Air) or a piercing character drama that keeps getting worse for the main character even as things get better (Precious). Then again Jason Reitman has been critically lauded for his past three films, perhaps he’s due for a little love from Oscar, and this category is probably his best shot.

My Pick: Up in the Air - Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Best Original Song

“Almost There” - Randy Newman (The Princess and the Frog)
“Down in New Orleans” - Randy Newman (The Princess and the Frog)
“Loin de Paname” - Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas (Paris 36)
“Take It All” - Maury Yeston (Nine)
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart”) - T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham (Crazy Heart)

While it’s nice to see Disney dominate this category again, of the five songs nominated I don’t think there’s another that conjures mood better than the theme from Crazy Heart.

My Pick: “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart”) - T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham

Best Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

In a just world, the film that managed to create Oscar-worthy effects for under $50 million would be more deserving of awards than the one with the limitless credit card. But then again, Avatar would be hollow without its state-of-the-art CG blue people and military vehicles. For pure spectacle, the choice is obvious.

My Pick: Avatar

Best Foreign Language Film

Ajami (Israel)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The Milk of Sorrow (Peru)
Un Prophète (France)
The White Ribbon (Germany)

I always have the toughest time this one, mostly because it’s hard to see all the nominated films. I guess my instinct is leaning towards the one whose trailer I found the creepiest. So the gold goes to Germany.

My Pick: The White Ribbon

Best Documentary Feature

Burma VJ
The Cove
Food, Inc.
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers
Which Way Home

This is a pretty outstanding collection of docs that the Oscars have assembled to nominate this year. I think the top two picks are going to be Burma VJ and The Cove, both of which excel at mixing social activism with compelling and emotional stories. For the bonus prize, The Cove is about animals being slaughtered by mean humans. Plus it has a strong Hollywood connection as former Flipper trainer Roc O’Barry lobbies to undo some of the damage he did on that show as a dolphin trainer. But besides all that, The Cove is easily one of the most emotional documentaries in recent memory; PETA and Mission: Impossible rolled into one powerful message film.

My Pick: The Cove

Written By Adam A. Donaldson